Messi’s Cognitive Test Won’t Predict His Performance Next Game
Wanting to predict how the market will behave based solely on previous price action and volume data is like testing the PH of an orange (indicating acidity or alkalinity of water) to identify its flavor
Carrying out only a Technical Analysis (TA) of cryptocurrencies before investing is the equivalent of trying to understand how Lionel Messi will play his next football match by performing a Cognitive Test on him. It may be possible that this test detects some patterns of behavior that help identify his performance, but nothing definitive. It could be necessary and not sufficient.
A little more breadth is needed, a Fundamental Analysis (FA) examining as many qualitative and quantitative factors as possible. Going back to the example of Messi, some of those context indicators will include knowing what he ate, how he slept, if he had a fight with his wife or any of his teammates, if he renewed his contract or not, if he was filming an advertisement, if he suffered some traumatic event, on or off the field. All of them are variables from which patterns do not emerge, but which will help define with more certainty what his behavior will be on the field.
Adding context indicators to the Technical Analysis will make it possible to infer the performance and the result with a greater probability of success.
Bitcoin is the Messi of cryptocurrencies and the same exhaustive logic that football analysts apply to the best player in the world must be applied to it. Otherwise, there is a risk of falling into the jaws of “professional analysts” who promise millions of dollars of profits with Pumps & Dumps and detailed investigations of the leaves of trees that cover the forest.